The Point: The Senate playing field is shrinking

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October 25, 2022 | by Chris Cillizza and Shania Shelton

The Senate playing field is shrinking

A map of the states that are hosting US Senate elections in the 2022 midterms. The seats in red are currently held by Republicans, while the seats in blue are currently held by Democrats.

Last week, a super PAC affiliated with Mitch McConnell announced it was pulling nearly $6 million out of the New Hampshire Senate race. On Tuesday, the group dumped an additional $6 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race.

"Dr. Oz is surging, but Democrats are throwing a barrage of late spending into Pennsylvania to stop his momentum," Senate Leadership Fund president Steven Law said. "This is a must-win race where we have to consolidate our firepower to ensure Oz gets over the top. We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority."

The move by SLF is the latest and most prominent example of the shrinking Senate playing field with the midterm elections now only two weeks away.

With the Senate knotted at 50-50, the emphasis -- on both sides -- is now on winning the small handful of races seen as most competitive between the two parties, with the Pennsylvania seat, currently held by the GOP, at the top of that list, followed by Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Nevada.

North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin are part of the second tier of competitive seats -- all three of which are currently controlled by Republicans. (Worth noting: major Democratic outside groups have largely sat out Ohio despite Rep. Tim Ryan's stronger-than-expected campaign.)

There's also Arizona, where Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has held a narrow lead over Republican nominee Blake Masters. SLF previously canceled ad reservations for September and October in the race.

Seemingly gone for Republicans are the dreams of picking up the likes of the New Hampshire seat, where Sen. Maggie Hassan is seeking a second term. Ditto Republican hopes of beating Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Whispers of winning a sleeper race over longtime Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley have largely faded for Democrats. The same goes for Florida, where Democratic Rep. Val Demings has been unable to close a persistent single-digit edge for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

Decisions to cut off heavy ad spending typically amount to an admission of defeat. And it is these decisions that often make or break a campaign for the majority. Choose to pull out of a race too soon (or not soon enough) and you could be wasting millions of precious ad dollars on a lost cause.

The Point: The best way to understand where each side sees the majority being made is to follow the money. And what the money tells us right now is that the map is getting smaller even as the stakes are getting larger.

-- Chris

TRIVIA TIME!

Which president was known as a "little magician?" (Answer below!)

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"The polls have been all over the place. First of all, if you speak to most pollsters, they're not sure anymore -- not about the outcome, but about polling."

-- President Joe Biden said at a Democratic National Committee event. Biden is directing an additional $18 million to the Democratic House and Senate campaign committees for the final stretch of the midterms.

TUESDAY ON THE SOCIALS

1. Why Liz Truss failed

2. On partisans coming home

3. Gas prices are dropping

4. Don Mattingly!

5. Autograph-gate

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Democrats are now playing defense in blue New England, a bad sign for their prospects of keeping the House, The New York Times reports.

The Times also breaks down why there is still so much uncertainty in the possible midterm outcomes.

FiveThirtyEight explains why there are fewer polls this election than in the past.

Jonathan Capehart argues in The Washington Post that Joe Biden is definitely going to run again.

An inspiring ESPN read on the Amputee Soccer World Cup.

A Washington Post expose on the world of female bodybuilding.

An amazing Curbed story about the woman who has taught the children of New York's elite to drive.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Experimental cello music may not sound like your cup of tea. But the new album from Mabe Fratti is endlessly interesting -- sonically speaking.

"DOWNSIDE UP"

Here are a few fun insect facts (yes you can have fun with insects!):

* Insects make up 75% of all animal life on the planet.

* We have named 1 million insects -- which is roughly 20% of all insects on the planet. That means 80% are unnamed! (#Math)

For more on insects -- and why we can't just get rid of mosquitoes -- check out the latest episode of my new podcast, "Downside Up."

SUBSCRIBE HERE

EARLY VOTING UPDATE

Now 14 days out from Election Day, more than 9.2 million midterm ballots have already been cast across 40 states, according to data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist.

CNN's Ethan Cohen notes that pre-election voting remains on pace with 2018, which featured the the highest midterm voter turnout in recent history.

Cohen writes: "Florida continues to have the largest number of pre-election ballots cast with nearly 1.4 million. More than 90% of those ballots were cast by mail. ... California was the second state with more than one million ballots cast, and Georgia crossed that threshold by midday Tuesday, according to Gabriel Sterling in the Georgia secretary of state's office."