A memo from a top commander in the US Air Force that warns subordinates his "gut" tells him to be ready for war with China -- and not just in theory, but in two years -- is out of step with the rest of the US government, fueling Republican criticisms of President Joe Biden and giving China reason to claim the US is the aggressor in the region.
Is this general being serious, or is this like a scene out of "Dr. Strangelove"?
Gen. Michael Minihan's memo to subordinates, first reported by NBC News, was shocking because its over-the-top language and hard deadline are out of step with the much more diplomatic, public-facing language coming out of the White House, the State Department and pretty much anywhere else of military or diplomatic authority.
"I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," writes Minihan, the four-star general who oversees the Air Mobility Command, which controls transport and refueling aircraft.
He says the upcoming 2024 presidential election in the democratic, self-governing island of Taiwan could provoke China, and the upcoming presidential election in the US could distract Americans from the threat. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and the ruling Chinese Communist Party has long vowed to use force if necessary for "reunification."
Minihan asks his commanders to report on their plans for a war with China by the end of February and encourages his personnel to use target practice to prepare for the challenge with "unrepentant lethality."
The Pentagon and White House played down the memo and made clear that war with China is not preordained or even likely.
"The president believes it shouldn't evolve into conflict," John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Monday. "There's no reason for the bilateral relationship -- the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world -- to erupt into some kind of conflict. We do believe and the president has made clear that we are in a competition with China, a competition that he believes the United States is well poised to win."
Domestic political focus on China
Minihan's warning is getting a lot of attention in conservative media outlets, which are pushing for a major increase in defense spending, particularly to build up the US Navy to counter China.
A Wall Street Journal editorial, for example, hailed Minihan as a truth teller.
The House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, said on "Fox News Sunday" he hopes Minihan is wrong. "I think he's right, though, unfortunately."
McCaul also took a political shot at Biden over his decision to remove US troops from Afghanistan.
"We have to be prepared for this," McCaul said. "It could happen, I think as long as Biden is in office projecting weakness."
Republicans are looking to make China a focus after taking control of the House of Representatives and created a new congressional committee to focus on threats posed to the US by China. After a report that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was planning to follow in former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's footsteps and visit Taiwan, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged against US officials interacting with Taiwan, according to The Hill.
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