A new poll's staggering findings

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August 1, 2023

Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose

54%

Trump at a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, on Saturday.

It looks like only a monumental political collapse can deprive Donald Trump of the Republican presidential nomination.

Of course, it's still early – the first voting in caucuses and primaries is more than five months away. And no one should make too much of any one poll – especially since the nominating race is a state-by-state affair and not a national contest.

But a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday has findings so staggering that they have the capacity to define the early stages of this race – and to dismay anyone hoping that the ex-president won't make it to a general election clash with President Joe Biden.

The survey shows that Trump leads the nomination race with 54% — trouncing his nearest rival Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, by 37 points. None of the other candidates gets above 3% — a number shared by ex-Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

This poll hardly seems like an outlier — it backs up the evidence of encounters with voters in early voting states and the sense that conservative America still adores Trump and is attracted to his hardening authoritarianism.

A 37-point lead in a primary poll is extraordinary. But so is the fact that Trump has been indicted twice already, could face at least two more indictments and may have to spend almost as much time in the courtroom as on the campaign trail next year. So it's always possible that a critical mass of voters eventually concludes the ex-president is too risky in a general election – though Biden's low approval ratings might weigh against that.

But Trump is dominating the GOP race. He leads Republicans in almost every category in the poll. He is top among male voters, female voters, younger voters, older voters, moderates and conservatives, among those who went to college and those who didn't. He's the number one Republican in rural areas and cities and suburbs.

There's more bad news for DeSantis, long seen as the most likely alternative to the former president as the Republican nominee. The Florida governor is arguing that given his record of turning culture war aspirations into the law of the Sunshine State, he'd be a better implementor of "Make America Great Again" policies than Trump in the Oval Office, as well as being more likely to beat Biden. But Republican voters disagree, according to the poll.

Pundits have long speculated that if all the other GOP candidates dropped out, DeSantis would be able to beat Trump. Think again. In a hypothetical matchup, the Florida governor would lose to his state's most famous resident 62% to 31%.

No one can read the future. But the race looks like Trump's to lose.

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'You have to earn it'

"You have to earn it person by person," DeSantis told reporters during a swing through early voting Iowa that wrapped up over the weekend.

"One of the things I like with being in Iowa and New Hampshire — they want to kick the tires, they want to hear from you personally," said DeSantis, seeking to carve out a new image as a scrappy underdog. "We are not entitled to anything."

Unfortunately, for DeSantis — while it's possible to meet many of the voters who will take part in the Republican nominating race in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire — that's not going to work nationwide.

Soon the race will head south, into true Trump country.

A new kind of border incursion

First, smoke from Canada's wildfires headed south into the US, causing choking smog in many east coast cities. Now flames are heading in the opposite direction.

The incursion came as an out-of-control blaze burning in northern Washington state exploded in size, crossed the Canadian frontier and set off a cascade of evacuations over the weekend.

The so-called Eagle Bluff blaze has burned thousands of acres on both sides of the border and forced hundreds to evacuate their homes since it ignited Saturday in Washington's Okanogan County.

Evacuations were ordered on Saturday for more than 700 properties in the Canadian town of Osoyoos, British Columbia, after the fire crossed the border. By Monday, that number fell to 192 properties after firefighters made progress in limiting the inferno.

The fire exploded due to dry, warm and breezy conditions. It's burned through more than 10,000 acres and at least 3,500 acres have burned in Canada alone. The fire remains uncontained in both countries, according to Washington and Canadian fire officials.

While fires have been raging at increased levels across the globe, partly as a result of climate change, the US fire season has been below average in terms of acres burned so far this year.

But Canada is suffering its worst fire season yet.

Thanks for reading.

On Tuesday, the United States Women's National Team face Portugal in round 16 of the World Cup.